Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
